ERRATA

These are the known mistakes appearing in various editions of The Precipice. If you find any further errors, please email: errata@theprecipice.com

All Editions

p. 75 — I cited a central estimate for the frequency of Toba-sized eruptions as 1 in 80,000 years. The correct figure, as given in endnote 35, is 1 in 800,000 years. Relatedly, the two instances of “1 in 800” per century on the final row of the associated table should be “1 in 8,000”.

This error renders two subsequent claims inaccurate. First, I claim on p. 76 that the probability of a civilization-threatening catastrophe caused by a supervolcanic eruption in the next century is estimated to be “about 100 times” that of asteroids and comets combined. “More than ten times” is more accurate.

Second, on p. 79 I claim that the probabilities associated with large stellar explosions look to be “at least 3,000 times smaller than those from supervolcanic eruptions.” A more accurate figure is 300.

Note that this does not affect my original best estimate of ~ 1 in 10,000 for the chance of an existential catastrophe via supervolcano eruption within the next 100 years, listed in Table 6.1, p. 167, as this was derived from the correct figure.

p. 246 & 289 — I included Professor Raymond Pierrehumbert in my list of acknowledgements. This was in error. Prof Pierrehumbert did not review or make comments on the manuscript prior to publication and should not be taken as endorsing anything therein. (Indeed, one also shouldn’t take any of the researchers who did review parts of the manuscript as endorsing it — they helped me make it more accurate, but didn’t necessarily see the final text, and any errors are my own.)

p. 409 — In endnote 31, I write that “[t]he discovery that the universe is expanding is generally credited to Edward Hubble and Georges Lemaître, who reached the conclusion independently in 1927 and 1929 respectively“. Hubble’s first name was “Edwin”, not “Edward”. The ordering of discoveries was also the reverse of what I suggest: Lemaître in 1927, and Hubble in 1929.

p. 411 — In endnote 35, I wrote that I based my calculation on a density of 0.009 galaxies per cubic megalight year. This is a mistake. The correct figure, as used in endnote 15 (pp. 406-407), is 0.0009.

p. 445 — I cite a 2018 report about McDonald’s restaurant expenses, for the 2017 fiscal year. In fact, I derived these figures from the same report of the subsequent year: the report released in 2019 for the fiscal year ending December 2018. This change should also be reflected in Chapter 2, endnote 54 (p. 312).

Hardback and Trade Paperback Only

p. 83 — In Table 3.4 I wrote that the best guess for natural extinction risk based on the lifespan of the Homo genus is 0–0.003%. This should read 0–0.005%.

pp. 108, 109 — I cited an upper bound estimate of fossil fuel resources of 13,600 GtC (rounded from 13,649 GtC). But I later found that the definition for these ‘resources’ doesn’t include the 1,940 GtC of ‘reserves’ that are readily extractable now. So the total figure really should be 15,600 GtC.

p. 133 — I wrote that a hundred years ago we were “yet to discover DNA.” While DNA’s structure was only discovered in 1953 by Watson and Crick, the molecule was first isolated in 1869 by Friedrich Miescher.

p. 402 — I wrote that the research fellowship that allowed me to write the book was funded by an individual donor. This was true for my fellowship at the time I began writing the book, but I was fortunate enough to receive funding from other sources later, as explained properly in the acknowledgments.

The Bloomsbury hardback has several instances where the endnote markers are confusingly ordered (e.g. on pp. 12–13 endnote 6 appears before endnote 5). In all such cases, the markers still correspond to the correct note in the back matter. In addition, a handful of internal page references were incorrect.

Bloomsbury (UK) Paperback edition

In some places in the UK paperback edition, the endnote markers in the main text do not correspond to the correctly numbered endnotes. In particular, there are several mismatches in Chapter 5, pp.138–152. For instance, endnote marker 78 in fact refers to endnote 76. Notes numbered from 81 onwards appear to be unaffected.

Hardback and Trade Paperback Only

p. 83 — In Table 3.4 I wrote that the best guess for natural extinction risk based on the lifespan of the Homo genus is 0–0.003%. This should read 0–0.005%.

pp. 108, 109 — I cited an upper bound estimate of fossil fuel resources of 13,600 GtC (rounded from 13,649 GtC). But I later found that the definition for these ‘resources’ doesn’t include the 1,940 GtC of ‘reserves’ that are readily extractable now. So the total figure really should be 15,600 GtC.

p. 133 — I wrote that a hundred years ago we were “yet to discover DNA.” While DNA’s structure was only discovered in 1953 by Watson and Crick, the molecule was first isolated in 1869 by Friedrich Miescher.

p. 402 — I wrote that the research fellowship that allowed me to write the book was funded by an individual donor. This was true for my fellowship at the time I began writing the book, but I was fortunate enough to receive funding from other sources later, as explained properly in the acknowledgments.

The Bloomsbury hardback has several instances where the endnote markers are confusingly ordered (e.g. on pp. 12–13 endnote 6 appears before endnote 5). In all such cases, the markers still correspond to the correct note in the back matter. In addition, a handful of internal page references were incorrect.

Bloomsbury (UK) Paperback edition

In some places in the UK paperback edition, the endnote markers in the main text do not correspond to the correctly numbered endnotes. In particular, there are several mismatches in Chapter 5, pp.138–152. For instance, endnote marker 78 in fact refers to endnote 76. Notes numbered from 81 onwards appear to be unaffected.