Further Reading

A guide to some of the most important writings on existential risk, which also appears in the book:

FoundationAL WORKS

Bertrand Russell & Albert Einstein (1955). ‘The Russell-Einstein Manifesto’.

In the decade after Hiroshima, Russell and Einstein each wrote several important pieces on nuclear war that touched upon the risk of human extinction. Their joint manifesto was the culmination of this early period of thought.

Hilbrand J. Groenewold (1968). ‘Modern Science and Social Responsibility’.

A very early piece that anticipated several key ideas of existential risk. It failed to reach a wide audience, leaving these ideas in obscurity until they were independently discovered decades later.

Annette Baier (1981). ‘The Rights of Past and Future Persons’.

The foundational work on the importance of future generations.

Jonathan Schell (1982). The Fate of the Earth.

The first deep exploration of the badness of extinction, and the central importance of ensuring humanity’s survival. Filled with sharp philosophical insight.

Carl Sagan (1983). ‘Nuclear War and Climatic Catastrophe: Some Policy Implications’.

A seminal paper, introducing the new-found mechanism of nuclear winter and exploring the ethical implications of human extinction.

Derek Parfit (1984). Reasons and Persons.

Among the most famous works in philosophy in the twentieth century, it made major contributions to the ethics of future generations and its concluding chapter highlighted how and why the risk of human extinction may be one of the most important moral problems of our time.

John Leslie (1996). The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction.

A landmark book that broadened the discussion from nuclear risk to all risks of human extinction, cataloguing the threats and exploring new philosophical angles.

Nick Bostrom (2002). ‘Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios’.

Established the concept of existential risk and introduced many of the most important ideas. Yet mainly of historic interest, for it is superseded by his 2013 paper below.

Nick Bostrom (2003). ‘Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development’.

Explored the limits of what humans might be able to achieve in the future, suggesting that it is of immense importance to accelerate the arrival of the ultimate state of our civilisation by even a tiny amount, yet that even this is overshadowed by the importance of increasing the chance we get there at all.

Nick Bostrom (2013). ‘Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority’.

An updated version of his essay from 2002, this is the go-to paper on existential risk.

Nick Beckstead (2013). On the Overwhelming Importance of Shaping the Far Future.

A book-length philosophical exploration of the idea that what matters most about our actions is not their immediate consequences, but how they shape the longterm trajectory of humanity.

The big picture

David Christian (2004). Maps of Time: An Introduction to Big History. 

The seminal book on Big History: examining the major themes and developments in our universe from the Big Bang, the origin of life, humanity, civilisation, the industrial revolution, through to today.

Fred Adams & Gregory Laughlin (1999). The Five Ages of the Universe.

A powerful and accessible presentation of how scientists believe the very longterm future will unfold.

Max Roser (2013). Our World in Data. Available at: www.ourworldindata.org

An essential online resource for seeing the ways in which many of the most important aspects of our world have changed over the last two centuries. From the raw data to compelling charts and insightful analysis.

Unaligned artificial intelligence

Nick Bostrom (2014). Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies.

The foundational work on artificial intelligence and existential risk.

Stuart Russell (2019). Human Compatible: AI and the Problem of Control. 

A call to action by a leading researcher in AI, showing how his field needs to develop if it is to address the risks that will be posed by advanced AI.

Nuclear weapons

Alan Robock et al. (2007). ‘Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences.’

At the time of writing the book, the most up-to-date modelling of the climate effects of a full-scale war between the US and Russia.

Richard Rhodes (1986). The Making of the Atomic Bomb.

A gripping history of the people and events leading to the creation of nuclear weapons. With so much information about how everything played out, it reveals how individuals can and did make a difference in this pivotal transition.

Daniel Ellsberg (2017). The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner.

An exploration of how close we have come to full-scale nuclear war, drawing on a wealth of new information from his career at RAND and the Pentagon.

Climate change

John Broome (2012). Climate Matters: Ethics in a Warming World.

A deep examination of the ethics of climate change.

Gernot Wagner & Martin Weitzman (2015). Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet. 

An accessible study of the risks from climate change, with a focus on extreme warming scenarios.

Longtermism

Max Roser (2022). ‘The Future is Vast: Longtermism’s perspective on humanity’s past, present, and future’.

Two compelling infographics illustrate the claim that, if we manage to avoid a large catastrophe, we are living at the early beginnings of human history.

William MacAskill (2022). What We Owe The Future.

This book makes a sustained case for longtermism: that positively influencing the longterm future is a key moral priority of our time.

The website longtermism.com lists a number of resources for further reading, and the Forethought Foundation have also suggested potential research projects. Finally, this introduction to longtermism on effectivealtruism.org focuses on philosophical arguments and objections.